partialTwo blind graders agree (D7, rule D16). Not in the audit sample (D11).
Grader A: partial
Most communication was digital in 2009, and some was encrypted (mobile radio links, online banking and login pages over HTTPS). But most web traffic and email travelled unencrypted; HTTPS became the majority of web page loads only around 2017-2018.
Test: At least 50% of communication encrypted: not met by 2014 (HTTPS majority around 2017-2018); encrypted share above 5% in 2009 (HTTPS for banking, commerce, logins).
HTTPS (Wikipedia) (retrieved 2026-09): HTTPS has been used more often than plain HTTP only since 2018; 70% of Firefox page loads in April 2018.
Grader B: partial
Most communication was digital by 2009, and mobile calls were encrypted over the air, but most web traffic and email were not encrypted; HTTPS became the majority of web use only in 2017-2018.
Test: Share test: encrypted traffic well above 5% in 2009; majority only ~2018.
Wikipedia: HTTPS (accessed 2026-09-28): HTTPS became the majority of web use only from 2018; April 2018 70% of Firefox page loads encrypted.
Wikipedia: Clipper chip (accessed 2026-09-28): Key-escrow Clipper chip (1993) entirely defunct by 1996; strong crypto such as PGP spread.
All captured fields
rank
66
kind
decade_prediction
section
Communication
subject
Encrypted communications
target year
2009
timing
in
position
Chapter 9, "2009"; item Communication 9 in Kurzweil 2010, p. 56
confidence
high
note
Wording as reproduced by the author in "How My Predictions Are Faring" (2010); book page not given there. Subject label is the essay's own item heading.