Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated

Telephones are primarily wireless

Ray Kurzweil, Books and essays, 1999, published 1999-01

“Telephone” communication is primarily wireless.

Verdict

hitTwo blind graders agree (D7, rule D16). Not in the audit sample (D11).

Grader A: hit

By end 2009 the world had about 4.6 billion mobile subscriptions, several times the number of fixed lines. In the US, 22.7% of households were already wireless-only in the first half of 2009, and most calls were placed on mobile phones.

Test: At least 20% of households or users: 4.6 billion mobile subscriptions worldwide at end 2009; 22.7% of US households wireless-only (H1 2009).

ITU press release: 5 billion mobile subscriptions expected in 2010 (2010-02-15): About 4.6 billion mobile cellular subscriptions at end 2009.
Wireless Substitution: Early Release of Estimates From the NHIS, January-June 2009 (CDC) (2009-12): 22.7% of US households had only wireless telephones in January-June 2009.

Grader B: hit

Globally mobile subscriptions far outnumbered fixed lines by 2009. In the US, 22.7% of households were wireless-only and a further 14.7% wireless-mostly in H1 2009.

Test: User test: >37% of US households wireless-only or mostly; mobile the majority of global subscriptions.

CDC NHIS Wireless Substitution, Jan-Jun 2009 (2009-12): 22.7% of US households wireless-only; a further 14.7% wireless-mostly.

All captured fields

rank: 60
kind: decade_prediction
section: Communication
subject: Telephones are primarily wireless
target year: 2009
timing: in
position: Chapter 9, "2009"; item Communication 3 in Kurzweil 2010, p. 51
confidence: high
note: Wording as reproduced by the author in "How My Predictions Are Faring" (2010); book page not given there. Subject label is the essay's own item heading.