Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated

Real-time language translation

Ray Kurzweil, Books and essays, 1999, published 1999-01

Listening machines can also translate what is being said into another language in real time, so they are commonly used by hearing people as well.

Source

Verdict

missThe two blind graders disagreed (A: miss, B: partial). A third agent settled it (D20).

Grader A: miss

Real-time spoken translation was not in common use in 2009. Google Translate added an experimental conversation mode only in January 2011 (English-Spanish at first), and it used statistical translation with poor grammatical accuracy until 2016.

Test: At least 20% of hearing people commonly using real-time speech translation: under 5% in 2009 and 2014.

Google Translate (Wikipedia) (retrieved 2026-09): Experimental conversation mode appeared in January 2011; statistical MT with poor grammatical accuracy until November 2016.

Grader B: partial

Google Translate added speech translation in 2010 and Conversation Mode in 2011, so the capability appeared in the 2010-2012 window, but it was limited in languages and was not commonly used as a real-time listening translator.

Test: Share test: speech translation available 2011 on phones; routine use well below 20% by 2014, likely above 5% of smartphone users trying it.

Wikipedia: Google Translate (accessed 2026-09-28): Speech translation April 2010; Conversation Mode Jan 2011 (English-Spanish only); camera sign translation 2015; no phone-call translation.

All captured fields

rank: 55
kind: decade_prediction
section: Disabilities
subject: Real-time language translation
target year: 2009
timing: in
position: Chapter 9, "2009"; item Disabilities 8 in Kurzweil 2010, p. 47
confidence: high
note: Wording as reproduced by the author in "How My Predictions Are Faring" (2010); book page not given there. Subject label is the essay's own item heading.