Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated

Ongoing professional education

Ray Kurzweil, Books and essays, 1999, published 1999-01

Learning is becoming a significant portion of most jobs.

Verdict

missThe two blind graders disagreed (A: miss, B: partial). A third agent settled it (D20).

Grader A: miss

Formal learning stayed a small part of work time. ASTD reported about 32 hours of formal learning per employee per year around 2009-2011, about 1.6% of a 2,000-hour work year, and the figure was stable, not rising. Informal on-the-job learning is not measured, so a broader reading cannot be checked.

Test: Share of work time spent on learning: about 32 hours per year (about 1.6% of work time), flat 2009-2011. Not a significant portion.

Insights on Learning & Development from the ASTD State of the Industry Report (OpenSesame) (2012): Learning hours per employee stayed stable at about 32 per year; spend per employee $1,081 then $1,228.

Grader B: partial

Workplace training and online learning grew, but no data shows learning as a significant portion of time in most jobs by 2009.

Test: Share test: employer-provided training reaches many workers (>5%), but learning as a significant time share of most jobs is not shown.

Wikipedia: Distance education (accessed 2026-09-28): In the US in 2011 about one third of postsecondary students had taken an accredited online course.

All captured fields

rank: 46
kind: decade_prediction
section: Education
subject: Ongoing professional education
target year: 2009
timing: in
position: Chapter 9, "2009"; item Education 20 in Kurzweil 2010, p. 43
confidence: high
note: Wording as reproduced by the author in "How My Predictions Are Faring" (2010); book page not given there. Subject label is the essay's own item heading.