missTwo blind graders agree (D7, rule D16). The auditor agent confirmed it (D11).
Grader A: miss
Same finding as 014: in 2009 almost all text was typed. Speech recognition reached human-transcriber parity on the standard benchmark only in 2016, and smartphone voice assistants started in late 2011.
Test: Majority of text created by speech: well under 5% in 2009 and 2014.
Speech was not the main source of text in 2009 or by 2014; dictation stayed niche.
Test: Share test: dictated text <5% by 2014.
Wikipedia: Speech recognition (accessed 2026-09-28): GOOG-411 2007; deep learning cut error rates from 2009; Siri used Nuance; Microsoft reached human parity on Switchboard only in 2017.
All captured fields
rank
34
kind
decade_prediction
section
Education
subject
Keyboards exist, but most text is created by speaking
target year
2009
timing
in
position
Chapter 9, "2009"; item Education 8 in Kurzweil 2010, p. 38
confidence
high
note
Wording as reproduced by the author in "How My Predictions Are Faring" (2010); book page not given there. Subject label is the essay's own item heading.