Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated

Virtual parallel supercomputers

Ray Kurzweil, Books and essays, 1999, published 1999-01

Unused computes on the Internet are being harvested, creating virtual parallel supercomputers with human brain hardware capacity.

Source

Verdict

partialTwo blind graders agree (D7, rule D16). Not in the audit sample (D11).

Grader A: partial

Harvesting of idle computers was real and routine in 2009: Folding@home passed 1 PF in September 2007 and 5 PF in February 2009, more than any supercomputer. But it did not reach the claimed human-brain figure of 20 PF (about 5 PF native, 25% of the claim).

Test: Numeric test: claim 20 PF (human brain capacity per Kurzweil); actual about 5 PF in 2009 (75% short), outside the 25% band. The harvesting practice itself existed and was significant.

Folding@home (Wikipedia) (retrieved 2026-09): Passed 1 native PF on 16 Sept 2007 and 5 PF on 18 Feb 2009; faster than the top supercomputer of the time.

Grader B: partial

Harvesting idle computers was real and large: Folding@home reached 5 native PF in Feb 2009 (plus BOINC projects). This is about a quarter of the stated 20 PF brain capacity, so the capacity part fails while the practice is fully true.

Test: Numeric: predicted ~20 PF; actual largest volunteer grid ~5 PF native in 2009 (~75% short).

Wikipedia: Folding@home (accessed 2026-09-28): Sustained 1 native PF Sept 2007; 5 native PF Feb 18 2009.

All captured fields

rank: 23
kind: decade_prediction
section: Computers
subject: Virtual parallel supercomputers
target year: 2009
timing: in
position: Chapter 9, "2009"; item Computers 23 in Kurzweil 2010, p. 30
confidence: high
note: Wording as reproduced by the author in "How My Predictions Are Faring" (2010); book page not given there. Subject label is the essay's own item heading.