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Supercomputers match capacity of human brain

Ray Kurzweil, Books and essays, 1999, published 1999-01

Supercomputers match at least the hardware capacity of the human brain — 20 million billion calculations per second (20 petaflops).

Source

Verdict

missTwo blind graders agree (D7, rule D16). Not in the audit sample (D11).

Grader A: miss

The fastest supercomputer in November 2009, Jaguar, ran Linpack at 1.76 petaflops (2.33 PF peak), about 9% of the claimed 20 petaflops. The first machine with 20 PF peak was Sequoia in June 2012 (17.17 PF Linpack).

Test: Numeric test: claim 20 PF; actual 2009 top system 1.76 PF Rmax / 2.33 PF Rpeak. Error about 90%, outside the 25% band. The figure was reached in 2012.

TOP500 November 2009 (2009-11): No. 1 Jaguar: Rmax 1,759 TFlop/s, Rpeak 2,331 TFlop/s.
Sequoia (supercomputer) (Wikipedia) (2012-06-14): Sequoia became No. 1 in June 2012 at 17.17 PF Linpack, 20.13 PF peak.

Grader B: miss

The fastest 2009 supercomputer (Roadrunner, June 2009) reached 1.1 PF Rmax; the 20 PF level came only in 2012-2013 (Sequoia 16 PF, Titan 17.6 PF).

Test: Numeric: predicted 20 PF; actual 2009 ~1.1-1.8 PF, >90% short.

TOP500 List June 2009 (2009-06): No. 1 Roadrunner: Rmax 1.105 PF, Rpeak 1.457 PF.
Wikipedia: FLOPS (accessed 2026-09-28): ATI Radeon HD 4800 (mid-2008) first GPU to reach 1 TFLOPS; HD 4870X2 2.4 TFLOPS; cost $48/GFLOPS 2007, $1.80 2011; K computer 10.5 PF Nov 2011, Sequoia 16 PF Jun 2012, Titan 17.6 PF Nov 2012.

All captured fields

rank: 22
kind: decade_prediction
section: Computers
subject: Supercomputers match capacity of human brain
target year: 2009
timing: in
position: Chapter 9, "2009"; item Computers 22 in Kurzweil 2010, p. 29
confidence: high
note: Wording as reproduced by the author in "How My Predictions Are Faring" (2010); book page not given there. Subject label is the essay's own item heading.