missTwo blind graders agree (D7, rule D16). Not in the audit sample (D11).
Grader A: miss
The fastest supercomputer in November 2009, Jaguar, ran Linpack at 1.76 petaflops (2.33 PF peak), about 9% of the claimed 20 petaflops. The first machine with 20 PF peak was Sequoia in June 2012 (17.17 PF Linpack).
Test: Numeric test: claim 20 PF; actual 2009 top system 1.76 PF Rmax / 2.33 PF Rpeak. Error about 90%, outside the 25% band. The figure was reached in 2012.
Wikipedia: FLOPS (accessed 2026-09-28): ATI Radeon HD 4800 (mid-2008) first GPU to reach 1 TFLOPS; HD 4870X2 2.4 TFLOPS; cost $48/GFLOPS 2007, $1.80 2011; K computer 10.5 PF Nov 2011, Sequoia 16 PF Jun 2012, Titan 17.6 PF Nov 2012.
All captured fields
rank
22
kind
decade_prediction
section
Computers
subject
Supercomputers match capacity of human brain
target year
2009
timing
in
position
Chapter 9, "2009"; item Computers 22 in Kurzweil 2010, p. 29
confidence
high
note
Wording as reproduced by the author in "How My Predictions Are Faring" (2010); book page not given there. Subject label is the essay's own item heading.