Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated

3D chips

Ray Kurzweil, Books and essays, 1999, published 1999-01

In terms of circuitry, three-dimensional chips are commonly used, and there is a transition taking place from the older single-layer chips.

Source

Verdict

partialTwo blind graders agree (D7, rule D16). The auditor agent confirmed it (D11).

Grader A: partial

In 2009 logic and memory chips were planar; the only common 3D element was stacking of separate dies in packages. Intel shipped '3-D' tri-gate transistors in Ivy Bridge in April 2012, and Samsung started 3D (V-NAND) flash in 2013. So a transition to three-dimensional chips started in 2012-2014, not by 2009.

Test: At least 50% of new chips or routine use by at least 20% of chipmakers: not in 2009; tri-gate transistors became standard in Intel CPUs from 2012 and 3D NAND started in 2013.

Multigate device / Tri-gate transistor (Wikipedia) (retrieved 2026-09): Intel released Ivy Bridge CPUs with tri-gate (3-D) transistors on 23 April 2012 after mass-production issues were solved in 2011.

Grader B: partial

Stacked-die packages and multi-layer flash chips existed by 2004-2007 and were used in phones, but mainstream 3D chips (TSV DRAM 2011, HBM 2013, 3D NAND) came in the 2010s. In 2009 single-layer chips dominated.

Test: Industry test: 3D stacked chips >5% of memory/mobile packaging by 2009; monolithic 3D mainstream only mid-2010s.

Wikipedia: Three-dimensional integrated circuit (accessed 2026-09-28): First commercial 3D IC 2004 (PSP SiP); Toshiba 8-layer NAND 2007; TSV DRAM 2011; HBM 2013; broad 3D adoption in 2010s.

All captured fields

rank: 19
kind: decade_prediction
section: Computers
subject: 3D chips
target year: 2009
timing: in
position: Chapter 9, "2009"; item Computers 19 in Kurzweil 2010, p. 27
confidence: high
note: Wording as reproduced by the author in "How My Predictions Are Faring" (2010); book page not given there. Subject label is the essay's own item heading.