Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated

Digital objects on personal servers

Ray Kurzweil, Books and essays, 1999, published 1999-01

Most users have servers in their homes and offices where they keep large stores of digital “objects,” including their software, databases, documents, music, and movies.

Source

Verdict

missTwo blind graders agree (D7, rule D16). The auditor agent confirmed it (D11).

Grader A: miss

Dedicated home and office servers holding users' media and software stayed a niche. Microsoft ended its Windows Home Server line in 2013. People kept files on their PCs and increasingly moved to online services (69% of US internet users already used some cloud service in 2008).

Test: At least 20% of households with a dedicated home server: far below 5% in 2009 and 2014.

Windows Home Server (Wikipedia) (retrieved 2026-09): The consumer home-server product line was ended; support stopped on 8 January 2013.
Use of Cloud Computing Applications and Services (Pew Research Center) (2008-09-12): 69% of US internet users used at least one cloud service such as webmail or online photo storage.

Grader B: miss

Home servers (Windows Home Server, NAS boxes) stayed a small niche. Users kept files on their PCs and moved toward cloud services, not personal servers.

Test: Household test: dedicated home servers well below 5% of households by 2014.

Wikipedia: Dropbox (accessed 2026-09-28): Dropbox launched 2008; 3M users Nov 2009, 50M Oct 2011, 100M Nov 2012.

All captured fields

rank: 8
kind: decade_prediction
section: Computers
subject: Digital objects on personal servers
target year: 2009
timing: in
position: Chapter 9, "2009"; item Computers 8 in Kurzweil 2010, p. 17
confidence: high
note: Wording as reproduced by the author in "How My Predictions Are Faring" (2010); book page not given there. Subject label is the essay's own item heading.