Machine-augmented cognition

Grader A: unfalsifiable

The description's first sentence (IT tools that amplify intelligence) is met by general software long before 2022, which would be a hit. The second sentence (brain readout driving stimulus) has only therapeutic closed-loop devices for epilepsy (NeuroPace RNS) and Parkinson's (Medtronic aDBS, FDA Feb 2025); none augments cognition, which would be a provisional miss. Both readings are equally supported by the poster text.

Test: D37 Horizons: products buyable by ordinary customers or patients outside pilots by 2024.

• Medtronic earns U.S. FDA approval for the world's first Adaptive deep brain stimulation system (2025-02-24): First approved closed-loop DBS adjusting stimulation to brain activity, for Parkinson's motor symptoms, not cognitive enhancement.

Grader B: miss

Closed-loop neurostimulators exist only as therapies for disease (NeuroPace RNS for epilepsy, 2013; Medtronic adaptive DBS for Parkinson's, 2025), not cognitive augmentation. Consumer neurostimulation headsets are open-loop and their cognitive claims are unproven. No cognition-augmenting closed-loop product by 2026.

Test: A product that reads brain signals and stimulates to augment cognition could be bought by ordinary customers by 2024; partial if limited or by 2025-2027.

• Medtronic earns FDA approval for first adaptive DBS system (2025-02-24): First closed-loop DBS approved, for Parkinson's motor symptoms, not cognition.
• Responsive neurostimulation device (2013-11): Closed-loop brain stimulation approved only to treat epilepsy.