Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated
The report calls it a 24-question survey. All 14 agree/disagree predictions are captured (answer options: agree, disagree, challenge the prediction, no response). majority_view compares agree with disagree only; it is a plurality, not always an absolute majority. Skipped: the rating of how much the internet will change 11 named institutions in the next decade on a 1-10 scale (no agree/disagree share). Sample is non-random; Pew states no margin of error.
At least one devastating attack will occur in the next 10 years on the networked information infrastructure or the country's power grid.
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As computing devices become embedded in everything from clothes to appliances to cars to phones, these networked devices will allow greater surveillance by governments and businesses. By 2014, there will be increasing numbers of arrests based on this kind of surveillance by democratic governments as well as by authoritarian regimes.
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Enabled by information technologies, the pace of learning in the next decade will increasingly be set by student choices. In ten years, most students will spend at least part of their "school days" in virtual classes, grouped online with others who share their interests, mastery, and skills.
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By 2014, as telework and home-schooling expand, the boundaries between work and leisure will diminish significantly. This will sharply alter everyday family dynamics.
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Pervasive high-speed information networks will usher in an age of creativity in which people use the internet to collaborate with others and take advantage of digital libraries to make more music, art, and literature. A large body of independently-produced creative works will be freely circulated online and will command widespread attention from the public.
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By 2014, all media, including audio, video, print, and voice, will stream in and out of the home or office via the internet. Computers that coordinate and control video games, audio, and video will become the centerpiece of the living room and will link to networked devices around the household, replacing the television's central place in the home.
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By 2014, 90% of all Americans will go online from home via high-speed networks that are dramatically faster than today's high-speed networks.
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In 2014, it will still be the case that the vast majority of internet users will easily be able to copy and distribute digital products freely through anonymous peer-to-peer networks.
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Groups of zealots in politics, in religion, and in groups advocating violence will solidify, and their numbers will increase by 2014 as tight personal networks flourish online.
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Civic involvement will increase substantially in the next 10 years, thanks to ever-growing use of the internet. That would include membership in groups of all kinds, including professional, social, sports, political and religious organizations - and perhaps even bowling leagues.
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In 10 years, the increasing use of online medical resources will yield substantial improvement in many of the pervasive problems now facing healthcare-including rising healthcare costs, poor customer service, the high prevalence of medical mistakes, malpractice concerns, and lack of access to medical care for many Americans.
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By 2014 use of the internet will increase the size of people's social networks far beyond what has traditionally been the case. This will enhance trust in society, as people have a wider range of sources from which to discover and verify information about job opportunities, personal services, common interests, and products.
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By 2014, most people will use the internet in a way that filters out information that challenges their viewpoints on political and social issues. This will further polarize political discourse and make it difficult or impossible to develop meaningful consensus on public problems.
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By 2014, network security concerns will be solved and more than half of American votes will be cast online, resulting in increased voter turnout.
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