# UK Office for Budget Responsibility · Hindsight | Envisioning

Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/obr

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1.  [Hindsight](/hindsight)
2.  ›UK Office for Budget Responsibility

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# UK Office for Budget Responsibility

Every publication series from UK Office for Budget Responsibility in Hindsight, and how its predictions turned out.

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[Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons)
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[Economic and Fiscal Outlook](/hindsight/obr/economic-and-fiscal-outlook)Numeric forecasts

Validated: graded by rule against the published actuals, with an agent audit of the matching ([D19](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d19-numeric-forecasts-are-graded-by-a-deterministic-command)).

33 publications, 2010 to 2026 · 920 predictions

34%

050%100%

hit rate, 126 of 376, 95% interval 29% to 38% with the audit error applied ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61))

Light band: with the audit error. Dark bar: count-only interval 29% to 38%.

-   hit126
-   partial84
-   miss166
-   ungradable240
-   open144

1.  892forecasts
    
    144 not due yet, 240 with no actual on the same definition
    
2.  →
    
    376graded by rule
    
    code compares each forecast with the published actual ([D19](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d19-numeric-forecasts-are-graded-by-a-deterministic-command))
    
3.  →
    
    50audited
    
    an agent checked the matching: 4% errors, 2 fixed in code for every row, 0% left ([D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds))
    
4.  →
    
    376published
    
    with the remaining audit error added to the interval ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61))
    

Rates, in percentage points: forecasts ran 0.17 points low on average; a typical forecast was off by 1.62 points (n 340).

Levels, in percent of the actual: forecasts ran 20.9% low on average; a typical forecast was off by 37.2% (n 36).

By how far ahead the forecast looked

Same year

050%100%

62% of 86

Next year

050%100%

32% of 78

2 years out

050%100%

27% of 70

3 to 5 years

050%100%

20% of 142

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Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml).
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