# International Energy Agency · Hindsight | Envisioning Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/iea --- --- 1. [Hindsight](/hindsight) 2. ›International Energy Agency --- # International Energy Agency Every publication series from International Energy Agency in Hindsight, and how its predictions turned out. --- [Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons) --- [World Energy Outlook](/hindsight/iea/world-energy-outlook)Numeric forecasts Validated: graded by rule against the published actuals, with an agent audit of the matching ([D19](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d19-numeric-forecasts-are-graded-by-a-deterministic-command)). 26 publications, 2000 to 2025 · 431 predictions 10% 050%100% hit rate, 5 of 50, 95% interval 4% to 21% with the audit error applied ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61)) Light band: with the audit error. Dark bar: count-only interval 4% to 21%. - hit5 - partial13 - miss32 - ungradable33 - open250 1. 349forecasts 250 not due yet, 33 with no actual on the same definition 2. → 50graded by rule code compares each forecast with the published actual ([D19](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d19-numeric-forecasts-are-graded-by-a-deterministic-command)) 3. → 50audited an agent checked the matching: 0% errors, 0 fixed in code for every row, 0% left ([D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds)) 4. → 50published with the remaining audit error added to the interval ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61)) Levels, in percent of the actual: forecasts ran 41.8% low on average; a typical forecast was off by 41.8% (n 50). By how far ahead the forecast looked 3 to 5 years 5 of 11, counts only 6 to 10 years 050%100% 0% of 29 Over 10 years 0 of 10, counts only --- Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml). ---