# US Federal Reserve · Hindsight | Envisioning

Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/federal-reserve

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1.  [Hindsight](/hindsight)
2.  ›US Federal Reserve

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# US Federal Reserve

Every publication series from US Federal Reserve in Hindsight, and how its predictions turned out.

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[Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons)
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[Summary of Economic Projections](/hindsight/federal-reserve/summary-of-economic-projections)Numeric forecasts

Validated: graded by rule against the published actuals, with an agent audit of the matching ([D19](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d19-numeric-forecasts-are-graded-by-a-deterministic-command)).

76 publications, 2007 to 2026 · 2,094 predictions

51%

050%100%

hit rate, 563 of 1100, 95% interval 48% to 54% with the audit error applied ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61))

Light band: with the audit error. Dark bar: count-only interval 48% to 54%.

-   hit563
-   partial257
-   miss280
-   ungradable14
-   open140

1.  1,541forecasts
    
    140 not due yet, 14 with no actual on the same definition
    
2.  →
    
    1,100graded by rule
    
    code compares each forecast with the published actual ([D19](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d19-numeric-forecasts-are-graded-by-a-deterministic-command))
    
3.  →
    
    110audited
    
    an agent checked the matching: 0% errors, 0 fixed in code for every row, 0% left ([D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds))
    
4.  →
    
    1,100published
    
    with the remaining audit error added to the interval ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61))
    

Rates, in percentage points: forecasts ran 0.07 points low on average; a typical forecast was off by 0.87 points (n 1,100).

By how far ahead the forecast looked

Same year

050%100%

75% of 344

Next year

050%100%

52% of 324

2 years out

050%100%

33% of 304

3 to 5 years

050%100%

27% of 128

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Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml).
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