# BP · Hindsight | Envisioning

Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/bp

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1.  [Hindsight](/hindsight)
2.  ›BP

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# BP

Every publication series from BP in Hindsight, and how its predictions turned out.

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[Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons)
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[Energy Outlook](/hindsight/bp/energy-outlook)Numeric forecasts

Validated: graded by rule against the published actuals, with an agent audit of the matching ([D19](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d19-numeric-forecasts-are-graded-by-a-deterministic-command)).

14 publications, 2011 to 2025 · 258 predictions

3 of 8 graded

No rate: 8 graded, fewer than 20 ([D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds)). Counts only.

-   hit3
-   partial2
-   miss3
-   ungradable4
-   open49

1.  239forecasts
    
    49 not due yet, 4 with no actual on the same definition
    
2.  →
    
    8graded by rule
    
    code compares each forecast with the published actual ([D19](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d19-numeric-forecasts-are-graded-by-a-deterministic-command))
    
3.  →
    
    5audited
    
    an agent checked the matching: 20% errors, 1 fixed in code for every row, 0% left ([D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds))
    
4.  →
    
    8published
    
    with the remaining audit error added to the interval ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61))
    

By how far ahead the forecast looked

Same year

1 of 1, counts only

Next year

1 of 2, counts only

2 years out

1 of 1, counts only

3 to 5 years

0 of 3, counts only

6 to 10 years

0 of 1, counts only

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Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml).
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