# US Energy Information Administration · Hindsight | Envisioning

Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/us-eia

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1.  [Hindsight](/hindsight)
2.  ›US Energy Information Administration

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# US Energy Information Administration

Every publication series from US Energy Information Administration in Hindsight, and how its predictions turned out.

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[Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons)
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[Annual Energy Outlook](/hindsight/us-eia/annual-energy-outlook)Numeric forecasts

Validated: graded by rule against the published actuals, with an agent audit of the matching ([D19](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d19-numeric-forecasts-are-graded-by-a-deterministic-command)).

43 publications, 1982 to 2026 · 9,390 predictions

46%

050%100%

hit rate, 1939 of 4205, 95% interval 45% to 48% with the audit error applied ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61))

Light band: with the audit error. Dark bar: count-only interval 45% to 48%.

-   hit1,939
-   partial888
-   miss1,378
-   ungradable873
-   open3,920

1.  9,390forecasts
    
    3,920 not due yet, 873 with no actual on the same definition
    
2.  →
    
    4,205graded by rule
    
    code compares each forecast with the published actual ([D19](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d19-numeric-forecasts-are-graded-by-a-deterministic-command))
    
3.  →
    
    433audited
    
    an agent checked the matching: 4% errors, 16 fixed in code for every row, 0% left ([D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds))
    
4.  →
    
    4,205published
    
    with the remaining audit error added to the interval ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61))
    

Levels, in percent of the actual: forecasts ran 11.3% high on average; a typical forecast was off by 27.9% (n 4,205).

By how far ahead the forecast looked

Same year

050%100%

73% of 316

Next year

050%100%

70% of 315

2 years out

050%100%

65% of 311

3 to 5 years

050%100%

56% of 876

6 to 10 years

050%100%

42% of 1,164

Over 10 years

050%100%

25% of 1,223

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Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml).
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