# OECD · Hindsight | Envisioning

Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/oecd

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1.  [Hindsight](/hindsight)
2.  ›OECD

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# OECD

Every publication series from OECD in Hindsight, and how its predictions turned out.

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[Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons)
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[Economic Outlook](/hindsight/oecd/economic-outlook)Numeric forecasts

Validated: graded by rule against the published actuals, with an agent audit of the matching ([D19](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d19-numeric-forecasts-are-graded-by-a-deterministic-command)).

73 publications, 1990 to 2026 · 954 predictions

43%

050%100%

hit rate, 399 of 918, 95% interval 40% to 47% with the audit error applied ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61))

Light band: with the audit error. Dark bar: count-only interval 40% to 47%.

-   hit399
-   partial212
-   miss307
-   open36

1.  954forecasts
    
    36 not due yet, 0 with no actual on the same definition
    
2.  →
    
    918graded by rule
    
    code compares each forecast with the published actual ([D19](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d19-numeric-forecasts-are-graded-by-a-deterministic-command))
    
3.  →
    
    150audited
    
    an agent checked the matching: 0% errors, 0 fixed in code for every row, 0% left ([D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds))
    
4.  →
    
    918published
    
    with the remaining audit error added to the interval ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61))
    

Rates, in percentage points: forecasts ran 0.07 points high on average; a typical forecast was off by 1.02 points (n 918).

By how far ahead the forecast looked

Same year

050%100%

53% of 468

Next year

050%100%

34% of 450

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Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml).
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