# International Monetary Fund · Hindsight | Envisioning Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/imf --- --- 1. [Hindsight](/hindsight) 2. ›International Monetary Fund --- # International Monetary Fund Every publication series from International Monetary Fund in Hindsight, and how its predictions turned out. --- [Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons) --- [World Economic Outlook](/hindsight/imf/world-economic-outlook)Numeric forecasts Validated: graded by rule against the published actuals, with an agent audit of the matching ([D19](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d19-numeric-forecasts-are-graded-by-a-deterministic-command)). 73 publications, 1990 to 2026 · 1,560 predictions 41% 050%100% hit rate, 576 of 1420, 95% interval 38% to 43% with the audit error applied ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61)) Light band: with the audit error. Dark bar: count-only interval 38% to 43%. - hit576 - partial293 - miss551 - ungradable96 - open44 1. 1,560forecasts 44 not due yet, 96 with no actual on the same definition 2. → 1,420graded by rule code compares each forecast with the published actual ([D19](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d19-numeric-forecasts-are-graded-by-a-deterministic-command)) 3. → 152audited an agent checked the matching: 11% errors, 16 fixed in code for every row, 0% left ([D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds)) 4. → 1,420published with the remaining audit error added to the interval ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61)) Rates, in percentage points: forecasts ran 0.05 points low on average; a typical forecast was off by 1.17 points (n 1,420). By how far ahead the forecast looked Same year 050%100% 49% of 722 Next year 050%100% 31% of 698 --- Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml). ---