# European Central Bank · Hindsight | Envisioning

Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/ecb

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1.  [Hindsight](/hindsight)
2.  ›European Central Bank

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# European Central Bank

Every publication series from European Central Bank in Hindsight, and how its predictions turned out.

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[Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons)
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[Staff macroeconomic projections](/hindsight/ecb/staff-projections)Numeric forecasts

Validated: graded by rule against the published actuals, with an agent audit of the matching ([D19](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d19-numeric-forecasts-are-graded-by-a-deterministic-command)).

104 publications, 2000 to 2026 · 566 predictions

58%

050%100%

hit rate, 299 of 518, 95% interval 53% to 62% with the audit error applied ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61))

Light band: with the audit error. Dark bar: count-only interval 53% to 62%.

-   hit299
-   partial84
-   miss135
-   open48

1.  566forecasts
    
    48 not due yet, 0 with no actual on the same definition
    
2.  →
    
    518graded by rule
    
    code compares each forecast with the published actual ([D19](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d19-numeric-forecasts-are-graded-by-a-deterministic-command))
    
3.  →
    
    52audited
    
    an agent checked the matching: 10% errors, 5 fixed in code for every row, 0% left ([D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds))
    
4.  →
    
    518published
    
    with the remaining audit error added to the interval ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61))
    

Rates, in percentage points: forecasts ran 0.05 points low on average; a typical forecast was off by 0.98 points (n 518).

By how far ahead the forecast looked

Same year

050%100%

79% of 202

Next year

050%100%

44% of 194

2 years out

050%100%

44% of 108

3 to 5 years

5 of 14, counts only

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Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml).
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