# Technology, Media and Telecommunications Predictions · Hindsight | Envisioning Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions --- --- 1. [Hindsight](/hindsight) 2. ›[Deloitte](/hindsight/deloitte) 3. ›Technology, Media and Telecommunications Predictions --- # Technology, Media and Telecommunications Predictions Dated predictions · 25 publications Validated: two blind graders, an adjudicator on every disagreement, and an agent audit of a fixed sample ([D20](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d20-agents-do-all-grading-adjudication-and-audit-amends-d7-d11)). --- [Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons) --- [Publications](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions)[Audit](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/audit) ## Hit rate by year of publication 0%50%100%all years 70%2005: 89% hits, 33 of 37 (95% interval 75% to 96%)2006: 79% hits, 19 of 24 (95% interval 60% to 91%)2007: 70% hits, 14 of 20 (95% interval 48% to 85%)2009: 59% hits, 13 of 22 (95% interval 39% to 77%)graded2002: 5 graded, fewer than 20: no rate (D11)2003: 16 graded, fewer than 20: no rate (D11)2004: 18 graded, fewer than 20: no rate (D11)2005: 37 graded2006: 24 graded2007: 20 graded2008: 18 graded, fewer than 20: no rate (D11)2009: 22 graded2010: 14 graded, fewer than 20: no rate (D11)2011: 10 graded, fewer than 20: no rate (D11)2012: 4 graded, fewer than 20: no rate (D11)2013: 5 graded, fewer than 20: no rate (D11)2014: 4 graded, fewer than 20: no rate (D11)2015: 4 graded, fewer than 20: no rate (D11)2016: 9 graded, fewer than 20: no rate (D11)2017: 4 graded, fewer than 20: no rate (D11)2018: 3 graded, fewer than 20: no rate (D11)2019: 2 graded, fewer than 20: no rate (D11)2020: 2 graded, fewer than 20: no rate (D11)2021: 2 graded, fewer than 20: no rate (D11)2022: 7 graded, fewer than 20: no rate (D11)2023: 3 graded, fewer than 20: no rate (D11)2024: 7 graded, fewer than 20: no rate (D11)2025: 5 graded, fewer than 20: no rate (D11)200220042006200820102012201420162018202020222024 Each dot is one year’s hit rate with its 95% interval, shown only for years with at least 20 graded claims ([D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds)). The bars below count the graded claims per year; faint bars are years too thin for a rate. Per-year rates carry no audit adjustment. Hover for the numbers. - [2026](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2026) Published 2025-11-16 Predictions 13 Status complete - [2025](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2025) Published 2024-11-18 Predictions 21 Graded 6 Hit rate 3 of 5, counts only Status complete - [2024](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2024) Published 2023-11 Predictions 19 Graded 7 Hit rate 4 of 7, counts only Status complete - [2023](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2023) Published 2022-11 Predictions 15 Graded 3 Hit rate 1 of 3, counts only Status complete - [2022](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2022) Published 2021-12 Predictions 19 Graded 10 Hit rate 4 of 7, counts only Status complete - [2021](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2021) Published 2020-12-08 Predictions 9 Graded 3 Hit rate 1 of 2, counts only Status complete - [2020](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2020) Published 2019-12-10 Predictions 10 Graded 4 Hit rate 1 of 2, counts only Status complete - [2019](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2019) Published 2018-12 Predictions 10 Graded 5 Hit rate 1 of 2, counts only Status complete - [2018](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2018) Published 2017-12 Predictions 11 Graded 3 Hit rate 1 of 3, counts only Status complete - [2017](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2017) Published 2017-01 Predictions 10 Graded 4 Hit rate 2 of 4, counts only Status complete - [2016](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2016) Published 2016-01 Predictions 17 Graded 10 Hit rate 5 of 9, counts only Status complete - [2015](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2015) Published 2015-01 Predictions 13 Graded 5 Hit rate 3 of 4, counts only Status complete - [2014](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2014) Published 2014-01-14 Predictions 14 Graded 7 Hit rate 2 of 4, counts only Status complete - [2013](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2013) Published 2013-01 Predictions 16 Graded 6 Hit rate 4 of 5, counts only Status complete - [2012](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2012) Published 2012-01 Predictions 18 Graded 7 Hit rate 4 of 4, counts only Status complete - [2011](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2011) Published 2011-01 Predictions 18 Graded 12 Hit rate 6 of 10, counts only Status complete - [2010](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2010) Published 2010-01 Predictions 22 Graded 15 Hit rate 8 of 14, counts only Status complete - [2009](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2009) Published 2009-01 Predictions 30 Graded 26 Hit rate 59% of 22 Status complete - [2008](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2008) Published 2008-01 Predictions 30 Graded 21 Hit rate 14 of 18, counts only Status complete - [2007](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2007) Published 2007-01 Predictions 30 Graded 24 Hit rate 70% of 20 Status complete - [2006](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2006) Published 2006-01 Predictions 31 Graded 25 Hit rate 79% of 24 Status complete - [2005](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2005) Published 2005-01 Predictions 40 Graded 37 Hit rate 89% of 37 Status complete - [2004](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2004) Published 2004-01-27 Predictions 20 Graded 19 Hit rate 17 of 18, counts only Status complete - [2003](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2003) Published 2003-01-09 Predictions 20 Graded 16 Hit rate 8 of 16, counts only Status complete - [2002](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2002) Published 2002-01 Predictions 10 Graded 6 Hit rate 3 of 5, counts only Status complete Publication Published Predictions Graded Hit rate Status [2026](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2026) 2025-11-16 13 complete [2025](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2025) 2024-11-18 21 6 3 of 5, counts only complete [2024](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2024) 2023-11 19 7 4 of 7, counts only complete [2023](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2023) 2022-11 15 3 1 of 3, counts only complete [2022](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2022) 2021-12 19 10 4 of 7, counts only complete [2021](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2021) 2020-12-08 9 3 1 of 2, counts only complete [2020](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2020) 2019-12-10 10 4 1 of 2, counts only complete [2019](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2019) 2018-12 10 5 1 of 2, counts only complete [2018](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2018) 2017-12 11 3 1 of 3, counts only complete [2017](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2017) 2017-01 10 4 2 of 4, counts only complete [2016](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2016) 2016-01 17 10 5 of 9, counts only complete [2015](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2015) 2015-01 13 5 3 of 4, counts only complete [2014](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2014) 2014-01-14 14 7 2 of 4, counts only complete [2013](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2013) 2013-01 16 6 4 of 5, counts only complete [2012](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2012) 2012-01 18 7 4 of 4, counts only complete [2011](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2011) 2011-01 18 12 6 of 10, counts only complete [2010](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2010) 2010-01 22 15 8 of 14, counts only complete [2009](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2009) 2009-01 30 26 59% of 22 complete [2008](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2008) 2008-01 30 21 14 of 18, counts only complete [2007](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2007) 2007-01 30 24 70% of 20 complete [2006](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2006) 2006-01 31 25 79% of 24 complete [2005](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2005) 2005-01 40 37 89% of 37 complete [2004](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2004) 2004-01-27 20 19 17 of 18, counts only complete [2003](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2003) 2003-01-09 20 16 8 of 16, counts only complete [2002](/hindsight/deloitte/tmt-predictions/2002) 2002-01 10 6 3 of 5, counts only complete - hit - partial - miss Hit rate per publication: hits over hit, partial and miss. Below 20 graded claims, counts only ([D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds)). Rates per publication carry no audit adjustment; the series rate on the publisher page does ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61)). ## 2005: by target year - 2005 Hit 32 Partial 1 Miss 3 Hit rate 89% of 36 - 2010 Hit 1 Partial 0 Miss 0 Hit rate 1 of 1, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2005 32 1 3 89% of 36 2010 1 0 0 1 of 1, counts only ## 2006: by target year - 2006 Hit 19 Partial 1 Miss 3 Hit rate 83% of 23 - 2010 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 1 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2006 19 1 3 83% of 23 2010 0 0 1 0 of 1, counts only ## 2008: by target year - 2008 Hit 12 Partial 3 Miss 1 Hit rate 12 of 16, counts only - 2020 Hit 1 Partial 0 Miss 0 Hit rate 1 of 1, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2008 12 3 1 12 of 16, counts only 2020 1 0 0 1 of 1, counts only ## 2010: by target year - 2010 Hit 7 Partial 4 Miss 1 Hit rate 7 of 12, counts only - 2011 Hit 1 Partial 1 Miss 0 Hit rate 1 of 2, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2010 7 4 1 7 of 12, counts only 2011 1 1 0 1 of 2, counts only ## 2011: by target year - 2011 Hit 5 Partial 0 Miss 4 Hit rate 5 of 9, counts only - 2012 Hit 1 Partial 0 Miss 0 Hit rate 1 of 1, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2011 5 0 4 5 of 9, counts only 2012 1 0 0 1 of 1, counts only ## 2016: by target year - 2016 Hit 4 Partial 2 Miss 2 Hit rate 4 of 8, counts only - 2017 Hit 1 Partial 0 Miss 0 Hit rate 1 of 1, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2016 4 2 2 4 of 8, counts only 2017 1 0 0 1 of 1, counts only ## 2017: by target year - 2017 Hit 2 Partial 0 Miss 1 Hit rate 2 of 3, counts only - 2022 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 1 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2017 2 0 1 2 of 3, counts only 2022 0 0 1 0 of 1, counts only ## 2018: by target year - 2018 Hit 0 Partial 1 Miss 0 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only - 2019 Hit 0 Partial 1 Miss 0 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only - 2023 Hit 1 Partial 0 Miss 0 Hit rate 1 of 1, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2018 0 1 0 0 of 1, counts only 2019 0 1 0 0 of 1, counts only 2023 1 0 0 1 of 1, counts only ## 2021: by target year - 2021 Hit 1 Partial 0 Miss 0 Hit rate 1 of 1, counts only - 2025 Hit 0 Partial 0 Miss 1 Hit rate 0 of 1, counts only Target year Hit Partial Miss Hit rate 2021 1 0 0 1 of 1, counts only 2025 0 0 1 0 of 1, counts only --- Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml). ---