Hindsight · review build · data not yet validated
112 publications, 1976 to 2026 · 1,557 predictions
29%
hit rate, 412 of 1441 (95% interval 26% to 31%)
Graded by rule against the published actual value (D19). Rates: mean error 0.15 points, mean absolute error 1.16 points (n 961). Levels: mean error -10.2%, mean absolute error 86.6% of actual (n 480).