# US Congressional Budget Office · Hindsight | Envisioning Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/cbo --- --- 1. [Hindsight](/hindsight) 2. ›US Congressional Budget Office --- # US Congressional Budget Office Every publication series from US Congressional Budget Office in Hindsight, and how its predictions turned out. --- [Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons) --- [Budget and economic projections](/hindsight/cbo/economic-projections)Numeric forecasts Validated: graded by rule against the published actuals, with an agent audit of the matching ([D19](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d19-numeric-forecasts-are-graded-by-a-deterministic-command)). 112 publications, 1976 to 2026 · 1,557 predictions 31% 050%100% hit rate, 440 of 1441, 95% interval 28% to 33% with the audit error applied ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61)) Light band: with the audit error. Dark bar: count-only interval 28% to 33%. - hit440 - partial311 - miss690 - ungradable12 - open104 1. 1,557forecasts 104 not due yet, 12 with no actual on the same definition 2. → 1,441graded by rule code compares each forecast with the published actual ([D19](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d19-numeric-forecasts-are-graded-by-a-deterministic-command)) 3. → 145audited an agent checked the matching: 0% errors, 0 fixed in code for every row, 0% left ([D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds)) 4. → 1,441published with the remaining audit error added to the interval ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61)) Rates, in percentage points: forecasts ran 0.55 points high on average; a typical forecast was off by 1.52 points (n 1,441). By how far ahead the forecast looked Same year 050%100% 66% of 267 Next year 050%100% 32% of 361 2 years out 050%100% 23% of 248 3 to 5 years 050%100% 16% of 565 --- Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml). ---