# Banco Central do Brasil · Hindsight | Envisioning

Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/banco-central-do-brasil

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1.  [Hindsight](/hindsight)
2.  ›Banco Central do Brasil

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# Banco Central do Brasil

Every publication series from Banco Central do Brasil in Hindsight, and how its predictions turned out.

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[Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons)
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[Focus market expectations survey](/hindsight/banco-central-do-brasil/focus-survey)Numeric forecasts

Validated: graded by rule against the published actuals, with an agent audit of the matching ([D19](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d19-numeric-forecasts-are-graded-by-a-deterministic-command)).

108 publications, 1999 to 2026 · 811 predictions

38%

050%100%

hit rate, 298 of 779, 95% interval 35% to 42% with the audit error applied ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61))

Light band: with the audit error. Dark bar: count-only interval 35% to 42%.

-   hit298
-   partial168
-   miss313
-   open32

1.  811forecasts
    
    32 not due yet, 0 with no actual on the same definition
    
2.  →
    
    779graded by rule
    
    code compares each forecast with the published actual ([D19](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d19-numeric-forecasts-are-graded-by-a-deterministic-command))
    
3.  →
    
    78audited
    
    an agent checked the matching: 4% errors, 3 fixed in code for every row, 0% left ([D11](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d11-validation-thresholds))
    
4.  →
    
    779published
    
    with the remaining audit error added to the interval ([D28](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d28-the-audit-error-rate-widens-every-published-interval-d11-issue-61))
    

Rates, in percentage points: forecasts ran 0.52 points low on average; a typical forecast was off by 1.62 points (n 593).

Levels, in percent of the actual: forecasts ran 1.5% low on average; a typical forecast was off by 13.2% (n 186).

By how far ahead the forecast looked

Same year

050%100%

56% of 377

Next year

050%100%

22% of 402

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Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml).
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