# Big Ideas · Hindsight | Envisioning

Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/andreessen-horowitz/big-ideas

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1.  [Hindsight](/hindsight)
2.  ›[Andreessen Horowitz (a16z)](/hindsight/andreessen-horowitz)
3.  ›Big Ideas

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# Big Ideas

Trend lists · 4 publications

Validated: trend persistence from two blind rename checkers, an adjudicator and an agent audit ([D33](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d33-trend-claims-persistence-across-the-publishers-own-editions-issues-26-to-31)).

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[Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons)
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-   [2026](/hindsight/andreessen-horowitz/big-ideas/2026)
    
    Published
    
    2025-12-09
    
    Predictions
    
    47
    
    Status
    
    complete
    
-   [2025](/hindsight/andreessen-horowitz/big-ideas/2025)
    
    Published
    
    2024-11-15
    
    Predictions
    
    49
    
    Status
    
    complete
    
-   [2024](/hindsight/andreessen-horowitz/big-ideas/2024)
    
    Published
    
    2023-11-29
    
    Predictions
    
    47
    
    Status
    
    complete
    
-   [2023](/hindsight/andreessen-horowitz/big-ideas/2023)
    
    Published
    
    2022-12-15
    
    Predictions
    
    46
    
    Status
    
    complete
    

Publication

Published

Predictions

Graded

Hit rate

Status

[2026](/hindsight/andreessen-horowitz/big-ideas/2026)

2025-12-09

47

complete

[2025](/hindsight/andreessen-horowitz/big-ideas/2025)

2024-11-15

49

complete

[2024](/hindsight/andreessen-horowitz/big-ideas/2024)

2023-11-29

47

complete

[2023](/hindsight/andreessen-horowitz/big-ideas/2023)

2022-12-15

46

complete

## Which trends the publisher kept

Rule [D33](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d33-trend-claims-persistence-across-the-publishers-own-editions-issues-26-to-31). Each trend is compared with the publisher’s next two editions: kept under the same name (persisted), kept under a new name (renamed), dropped (faded), or dropped and brought back later (recycled). This measures the publisher’s own consistency, not whether a trend came true, and is never a hit rate.

-   renamed37
-   faded56
-   open96

0%

persisted, 0 of 93 (0% to 4%)

40%

renamed, 37 of 93 (30% to 50%)

0%

recycled, 0 of 93 (0% to 4%)

60%

faded, 56 of 93 (50% to 70%)

Still open (fewer than two later editions): 96. Audit of the agreed rename checks: 50 checked, 0% residual error.

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Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml).
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