Scanning the Green Transition in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Envisioning partnered with the United Nations Development Programme to build a horizon scanning capability for their five-year programme "Catalysing the Green Transition in Bosnia and Herzegovina", which aims to enable a just shift to a green, zero-carbon economy.
The programme adopts a portfolio approach across five pillars — decarbonisation, depollution, nature and biodiversity, circularity, and environmental justice — and is underpinned by continuous learning through Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning (MEL) and Dynamic Portfolio Management (DPM). Within this context, Envisioning's Signals platform was used to establish a lightweight, repeatable foresight-to-MEL workflow: surface signals, organise them around the portfolio's pillars, and feed intelligence into regular sensemaking and programming decisions.
The delivery — two interactive radars, full data exports and an AI assistant — is designed to outlast the engagement itself. UNDP teams can reuse the datasets, run follow-up scans at set intervals, and embed the radar directly into quarterly portfolio reviews, closing the loop between foresight and action.
Our Work
- Built 2 purpose-built interactive radars (Green Transition and Circular Economy) containing citation-backed signals of change.
- Applied a 6-stage AI-enhanced methodology: ensemble generation across 5 frontier models, semantic deduplication, impact assessment, narrative synthesis, source verification, and interactive visualisation.
- Orchestrated 5 AI models in parallel (Gemini 3 Pro, GPT-5 Mini, Claude Sonnet 4.5, Mistral Large, Sonar Pro) to increase signal diversity and reduce single-model bias.
- Integrated a 5-level verification system (Grounded → Fabricated) with linked external sources for every signal.
- Delivered full downloadable datasets and an AI assistant for natural-language exploration of the signal data.
- Designed the workflow to plug directly into UNDP's existing MEL and Dynamic Portfolio Management processes.
Impact
- Established a repeatable foresight-to-MEL workflow embedded in a 5-year programme — foresight outputs feed directly into quarterly portfolio reviews and programming decisions.
- Covered 5 portfolio pillars (decarbonisation, depollution, nature/biodiversity, circularity, environmental justice) in a single scanning engagement.
- Delivered within a 6-week timeline, including model configuration, results refinement, and 2 stakeholder webinars.
- Provided 6 months of hosted access to interactive radars for ongoing use.
- Builds on prior UNDP collaboration, demonstrating the platform's adaptability across different country contexts and thematic areas.
