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  1. Home
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  3. Substrate
  4. Post-Quantum Cryptography

Post-Quantum Cryptography

NIST finalized four post-quantum cryptographic standards in 2024, and US government agencies are beginning mandatory migration to quantum-resistant encryption before cryptographically relevant quantum computers arrive.

Geography: Americas · North America · United States

Back to SubstrateBack to United StatesView interactive version

Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) refers to encryption algorithms designed to resist attacks from both classical and quantum computers. NIST finalized the first four PQC standards in 2024: CRYSTALS-Kyber for key encapsulation, CRYSTALS-Dilithium and FALCON for digital signatures, and SPHINCS+ as a hash-based backup. SandboxAQ (Google spin-off, $5.75 billion valuation) is leading enterprise PQC migration services.

The urgency comes from 'harvest now, decrypt later' attacks — adversaries are already collecting encrypted data that will become readable once large-scale quantum computers exist. Critical infrastructure, financial systems, government communications, and military secrets all rely on cryptographic algorithms that quantum computers could break. The migration timeline is measured in years, but the threat timeline is shrinking.

The US pioneered PQC standardization through NIST's multi-year competition and now mandates quantum-resistant cryptography for federal systems. This creates a first-mover advantage: US companies developing PQC solutions are setting global standards, and the transition will generate tens of billions in cybersecurity spending. IonQ projects cryptographically relevant quantum computers by 2028, making this migration genuinely urgent.

TRL
7/9Operational
Impact
5/5
Investment
4/5
Category
Hardware

What was expected

Published forecasts about this technology, graded against what happened in Hindsight.

Updating Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards

This page is broader than it.

  • Future Today Strategy Group, 2022renamed
  • Future Today Strategy Group, 2021persisted

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Postquantum Cryptography

This page is a narrower case of it.

  • Future Today Strategy Group, 2025no verdict yet
  • Deloitte, 2024no verdict yet
  • Deloitte, 2024no verdict yet
  • Gartner, 2023no verdict yet

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Quantum Resistant Cryptography

This page is a narrower case of it.

  • Future Today Strategy Group, 2025no verdict yet
  • Future Today Strategy Group, 2024no verdict yet
  • Future Today Strategy Group, 2023persisted

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