Skip to main content

Envisioning is an emerging technology research institute and advisory.

LinkedInInstagramGitHub

2011 — 2026

research
  • Reports
  • Newsletter
  • Methodology
  • Origins
  • My Collection
services
  • Research Sessions
  • Signals Workspace
  • Bespoke Projects
  • Use Cases
  • Signal Scanfree
  • Readinessfree
impact
  • ANBIMAFuture of Brazilian Capital Markets
  • IEEECharting the Energy Transition
  • Horizon 2045Future of Human and Planetary Security
  • WKOTechnology Scanning for Austria
audiences
  • Innovation
  • Strategy
  • Consultants
  • Foresight
  • Associations
  • Governments
resources
  • Pricing
  • Partners
  • How We Work
  • Data Visualization
  • Multi-Model Method
  • FAQ
  • Security & Privacy
about
  • Manifesto
  • Community
  • Events
  • Support
  • Contact
  • Login
ResearchServicesPricingPartnersAbout
ResearchServicesPricingPartnersAbout
  1. Home
  2. Research
  3. Polis
  4. Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism

Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism

The world's first border carbon tax — requiring importers to pay for embedded CO2 emissions in steel, cement, aluminum, and fertilizers from January 2026
Back to PolisView interactive version

The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) entered its definitive phase on January 1, 2026, becoming the world's first operational border carbon adjustment policy. Importers of steel, iron, cement, aluminum, fertilizers, hydrogen, and electricity must purchase certificates based on the embedded CO2 emissions of their products, priced at EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) rates.

CBAM addresses 'carbon leakage' — the risk that EU climate policy drives production to countries with weaker emissions standards. By equalizing the carbon cost between domestic and imported goods, CBAM removes the competitive disadvantage for European producers who pay EU carbon prices while competing against imports from countries without carbon pricing.

The global implications are profound: CBAM creates a financial incentive for every country exporting to the EU to implement its own carbon pricing. Countries like Turkey, India, and Brazil are developing carbon pricing mechanisms partly in response to CBAM — because if they price carbon domestically, their exporters can deduct those costs from CBAM certificates. Europe is using trade policy to export climate regulation worldwide.

TRL
8/9Deployed
Impact
5/5
Investment
5/5
Category
Software

Book a research session

Bring this signal into a focused decision sprint with analyst-led framing and synthesis.
Research Sessions