# Scenarios · Hindsight | Envisioning Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/shell/scenarios --- --- 1. [Hindsight](/hindsight) 2. ›[Shell](/hindsight/shell) 3. ›Scenarios --- # Scenarios Scenario sets · 17 publications Graded by rule: observed values against the scenario ranges ([D34](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d34-scenario-sets-coverage-issues-32-to-34)). --- [Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons) --- - [2026](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2026) Published 2026-01 Predictions 3 Status complete - [2025](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2025) Published 2025 Predictions 27 Status complete - [2023](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2023) Published 2023-03-21 Predictions 56 Status complete - [2021](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2021) Published 2021 Predictions 149 Status complete - [2020](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2020) Published 2020-09 Predictions 3 Status complete - [2018](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2018) Published 2018-03-26 Predictions 6 Status complete - [2016](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2016) Published 2016-05 Predictions 2 Status complete - [2013](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2013) Published 2013-03 Predictions 33 Status complete - [2011](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2011) Published 2011-02 Predictions 12 Status complete - [2008](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2008) Published 2008 Predictions 6 Status complete - [2007](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2007) Published 2007-02 Predictions 3 Status complete - [2005](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2005) Published 2005 Predictions 7 Status partial - [2002](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2002) Published 2002-02 Predictions 6 Status complete - [2001](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2001) Published 2001 Predictions 14 Status complete - [1999](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/1999) Published 1999 Predictions 4 Status complete - [1996](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/1996) Published 1996 Predictions 4 Status complete - [1993](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/1993) Published 1993 Predictions 5 Status complete Publication Published Predictions Graded Hit rate Status [2026](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2026) 2026-01 3 complete [2025](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2025) 2025 27 complete [2023](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2023) 2023-03-21 56 complete [2021](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2021) 2021 149 complete [2020](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2020) 2020-09 3 complete [2018](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2018) 2018-03-26 6 complete [2016](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2016) 2016-05 2 complete [2013](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2013) 2013-03 33 complete [2011](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2011) 2011-02 12 complete [2008](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2008) 2008 6 complete [2007](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2007) 2007-02 3 complete [2005](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2005) 2005 7 partial [2002](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2002) 2002-02 6 complete [2001](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/2001) 2001 14 complete [1999](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/1999) 1999 4 complete [1996](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/1996) 1996 4 complete [1993](/hindsight/shell/scenarios/1993) 1993 5 complete ## Did reality fall inside the scenarios? Rule [D34](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d34-scenario-sets-coverage-issues-32-to-34). For each scenario set, metric and passed year, the observed value is compared with the range of the set’s scenarios: inside (covered), within 10% of the nearest edge (partly covered) or outside. Scenarios are never graded as hits or misses. - 2013 Covered 0 Partly covered 4 Not covered 3 - 2021 Covered 9 Partly covered 15 Not covered 3 - 2023 Covered 5 Partly covered 10 Not covered 2 Edition Covered Partly covered Not covered 2013 0 4 3 2021 9 15 3 2023 5 10 2 - covered - partly covered - not covered Every comparison Each line: the scenario range in blue, the 10% either side that counts as partly covered hatched, the observed value as a dot. - 2013 Metric total primary energy: Coal Year 2020 Scenario range 184.8 to 202.7 Observed 157.4102 Result not covered Closest scenario Mountains - 2013 Metric total primary energy: Natural Gas Year 2020 Scenario range 147.9 to 149.7 Observed 139.1931 Result partly covered Closest scenario Oceans - 2013 Metric total primary energy: Nuclear Year 2020 Scenario range 33.3 to 37.5 Observed 29.2262 Result not covered Closest scenario Oceans - 2013 Metric total primary energy: Oil Year 2020 Scenario range 190.2 to 196.4 Observed 172.8649 Result partly covered Closest scenario Mountains - 2013 Metric total primary energy: Solar Year 2020 Scenario range 3.6 to 4.4 Observed 4.6238 Result partly covered Closest scenario Oceans - 2013 Metric total primary energy: Wind Year 2020 Scenario range 3 to 4.7 Observed 5.7638 Result not covered Closest scenario Oceans - 2013 Metric total primary energy Year 2020 Scenario range 647 to 668 Observed 583.6611 Result partly covered Closest scenario Mountains - 2021 Metric CO2 emissions from energy Year 2022 Scenario range 34.782 to 35.4 Observed 35.7188 Result partly covered Closest scenario Waves - 2021 Metric CO2 emissions from energy Year 2023 Scenario range 35.038 to 35.9 Observed 36.0401 Result partly covered Closest scenario Waves - 2021 Metric CO2 emissions from energy Year 2024 Scenario range 35.228 to 36.474 Observed 36.4591 Result covered Closest scenario Waves - 2021 Metric CO2 emissions from energy Year 2025 Scenario range 35.411 to 36.863 Observed 35.8062 Result covered Closest scenario Sky 1.5 - 2021 Metric total primary energy: Coal Year 2022 Scenario range 157.51 to 160.29 Observed 169.3846 Result partly covered Closest scenario Waves - 2021 Metric total primary energy: Coal Year 2023 Scenario range 158.164 to 162.074 Observed 169.6301 Result partly covered Closest scenario Waves - 2021 Metric total primary energy: Coal Year 2024 Scenario range 158.996 to 164.297 Observed 171.7203 Result partly covered Closest scenario Waves - 2021 Metric total primary energy: Coal Year 2025 Scenario range 159.494 to 165.578 Observed 166.0302 Result partly covered Closest scenario Waves - 2021 Metric total primary energy: Natural gas Year 2022 Scenario range 139.993 to 142.049 Observed 143.043 Result partly covered Closest scenario Waves - 2021 Metric total primary energy: Natural gas Year 2023 Scenario range 141.3 to 144.578 Observed 143.1071 Result covered Closest scenario Sky 1.5 - 2021 Metric total primary energy: Natural gas Year 2024 Scenario range 142.826 to 147.714 Observed 145.3235 Result covered Closest scenario Sky 1.5 - 2021 Metric total primary energy: Natural gas Year 2025 Scenario range 144.416 to 149.926 Observed 150.6973 Result partly covered Closest scenario Waves - 2021 Metric total primary energy: Nuclear Year 2022 Scenario range 29.143 to 31.698 Observed 29.4787 Result covered Closest scenario Islands - 2021 Metric total primary energy: Nuclear Year 2023 Scenario range 29.618 to 32.617 Observed 29.8656 Result covered Closest scenario Islands - 2021 Metric total primary energy: Nuclear Year 2024 Scenario range 30.562 to 33.916 Observed 30.5849 Result covered Closest scenario Islands - 2021 Metric total primary energy: Nuclear Year 2025 Scenario range 31.077 to 34.864 Observed 31.0406 Result partly covered Closest scenario Islands - 2021 Metric total primary energy: Oil Year 2022 Scenario range 190.195 to 193.778 Observed 186.2607 Result partly covered Closest scenario Islands - 2021 Metric total primary energy: Oil Year 2023 Scenario range 192.042 to 196.603 Observed 190.6783 Result partly covered Closest scenario Islands - 2021 Metric total primary energy: Oil Year 2024 Scenario range 192.448 to 199.457 Observed 193.2651 Result covered Closest scenario Islands - 2021 Metric total primary energy: Oil Year 2025 Scenario range 193.551 to 201.874 Observed 200.973 Result covered Closest scenario Waves - 2021 Metric total primary energy: Solar Year 2022 Result no observed value - 2021 Metric total primary energy: Solar Year 2023 Result no observed value - 2021 Metric total primary energy: Solar Year 2024 Result no observed value - 2021 Metric total primary energy: Solar Year 2025 Result no observed value - 2021 Metric total primary energy: Wind Year 2022 Scenario range 6.065 to 6.616 Observed 7.4609 Result not covered Closest scenario Sky 1.5 - 2021 Metric total primary energy: Wind Year 2023 Scenario range 6.443 to 7.317 Observed 8.3557 Result not covered Closest scenario Sky 1.5 - 2021 Metric total primary energy: Wind Year 2024 Scenario range 6.844 to 8.16 Observed 9.4195 Result not covered Closest scenario Waves - 2021 Metric total primary energy: Wind Year 2025 Scenario range 7.282 to 9.116 Observed 9.7706 Result partly covered Closest scenario Waves - 2021 Metric total primary energy Year 2022 Scenario range 603.87 to 616.721 Observed 623.567 Result partly covered Closest scenario Waves - 2021 Metric total primary energy Year 2023 Scenario range 609.983 to 628.15 Observed 634.7344 Result partly covered Closest scenario Waves - 2021 Metric total primary energy Year 2024 Scenario range 615.866 to 641.717 Observed 647.9218 Result partly covered Closest scenario Waves - 2021 Metric total primary energy Year 2025 Result no observed value - 2023 Metric net energy-related CO2 emissions Year 2024 Scenario range 34.79 to 35.208 Observed 36.4591 Result partly covered Closest scenario Archipelagos - 2023 Metric net energy-related CO2 emissions Year 2025 Scenario range 34.599 to 35.553 Observed 35.8062 Result partly covered Closest scenario Archipelagos - 2023 Metric stock of electric passenger vehicles (BEV and PHEV) Year 2024 Scenario range 51.902 to 59.403 Observed 56 Result covered Closest scenario Sky 2050 - 2023 Metric stock of electric passenger vehicles (BEV and PHEV) Year 2025 Scenario range 66.604 to 80.885 Observed 75 Result covered Closest scenario Sky 2050 - 2023 Metric total primary energy: Coal Year 2024 Scenario range 160.876 to 160.955 Observed 171.7203 Result partly covered Closest scenario Sky 2050 - 2023 Metric total primary energy: Coal Year 2025 Scenario range 159.322 to 162.567 Observed 166.0302 Result partly covered Closest scenario Archipelagos - 2023 Metric total primary energy: Natural gas Year 2024 Scenario range 136.365 to 139.932 Observed 145.3235 Result partly covered Closest scenario Archipelagos - 2023 Metric total primary energy: Natural gas Year 2025 Scenario range 136.456 to 140.97 Observed 150.6973 Result partly covered Closest scenario Archipelagos - 2023 Metric total primary energy: Nuclear Year 2024 Scenario range 30.384 to 30.635 Observed 30.5849 Result covered Closest scenario Sky 2050 - 2023 Metric total primary energy: Nuclear Year 2025 Scenario range 30.705 to 31 Observed 31.0406 Result partly covered Closest scenario Sky 2050 - 2023 Metric total primary energy: Oil Year 2024 Scenario range 191.318 to 193.298 Observed 193.2651 Result covered Closest scenario Archipelagos - 2023 Metric total primary energy: Oil Year 2025 Scenario range 192.292 to 195.917 Observed 200.973 Result partly covered Closest scenario Archipelagos - 2023 Metric total primary energy: Solar - photovoltaic Year 2024 Scenario range 5.616 to 5.957 Observed 7.801 Result not covered Closest scenario Sky 2050 - 2023 Metric total primary energy: Solar - photovoltaic Year 2025 Scenario range 6.723 to 7.751 Observed 10.1198 Result not covered Closest scenario Sky 2050 - 2023 Metric total primary energy: Wind Year 2024 Scenario range 9.197 to 9.695 Observed 9.4195 Result covered Closest scenario Archipelagos - 2023 Metric total primary energy: Wind Year 2025 Scenario range 10.323 to 11.915 Observed 9.7706 Result partly covered Closest scenario Archipelagos - 2023 Metric total primary energy Year 2024 Scenario range 616.61 to 620.654 Observed 647.9218 Result partly covered Closest scenario Archipelagos - 2023 Metric total primary energy Year 2025 Result no observed value Edition Metric Year Scenario range Observed Result Closest scenario 2013 total primary energy: Coal 2020 184.8 to 202.7 157.4102 not covered Mountains 2013 total primary energy: Natural Gas 2020 147.9 to 149.7 139.1931 partly covered Oceans 2013 total primary energy: Nuclear 2020 33.3 to 37.5 29.2262 not covered Oceans 2013 total primary energy: Oil 2020 190.2 to 196.4 172.8649 partly covered Mountains 2013 total primary energy: Solar 2020 3.6 to 4.4 4.6238 partly covered Oceans 2013 total primary energy: Wind 2020 3 to 4.7 5.7638 not covered Oceans 2013 total primary energy 2020 647 to 668 583.6611 partly covered Mountains 2021 CO2 emissions from energy 2022 34.782 to 35.4 35.7188 partly covered Waves 2021 CO2 emissions from energy 2023 35.038 to 35.9 36.0401 partly covered Waves 2021 CO2 emissions from energy 2024 35.228 to 36.474 36.4591 covered Waves 2021 CO2 emissions from energy 2025 35.411 to 36.863 35.8062 covered Sky 1.5 2021 total primary energy: Coal 2022 157.51 to 160.29 169.3846 partly covered Waves 2021 total primary energy: Coal 2023 158.164 to 162.074 169.6301 partly covered Waves 2021 total primary energy: Coal 2024 158.996 to 164.297 171.7203 partly covered Waves 2021 total primary energy: Coal 2025 159.494 to 165.578 166.0302 partly covered Waves 2021 total primary energy: Natural gas 2022 139.993 to 142.049 143.043 partly covered Waves 2021 total primary energy: Natural gas 2023 141.3 to 144.578 143.1071 covered Sky 1.5 2021 total primary energy: Natural gas 2024 142.826 to 147.714 145.3235 covered Sky 1.5 2021 total primary energy: Natural gas 2025 144.416 to 149.926 150.6973 partly covered Waves 2021 total primary energy: Nuclear 2022 29.143 to 31.698 29.4787 covered Islands 2021 total primary energy: Nuclear 2023 29.618 to 32.617 29.8656 covered Islands 2021 total primary energy: Nuclear 2024 30.562 to 33.916 30.5849 covered Islands 2021 total primary energy: Nuclear 2025 31.077 to 34.864 31.0406 partly covered Islands 2021 total primary energy: Oil 2022 190.195 to 193.778 186.2607 partly covered Islands 2021 total primary energy: Oil 2023 192.042 to 196.603 190.6783 partly covered Islands 2021 total primary energy: Oil 2024 192.448 to 199.457 193.2651 covered Islands 2021 total primary energy: Oil 2025 193.551 to 201.874 200.973 covered Waves 2021 total primary energy: Solar 2022 no observed value 2021 total primary energy: Solar 2023 no observed value 2021 total primary energy: Solar 2024 no observed value 2021 total primary energy: Solar 2025 no observed value 2021 total primary energy: Wind 2022 6.065 to 6.616 7.4609 not covered Sky 1.5 2021 total primary energy: Wind 2023 6.443 to 7.317 8.3557 not covered Sky 1.5 2021 total primary energy: Wind 2024 6.844 to 8.16 9.4195 not covered Waves 2021 total primary energy: Wind 2025 7.282 to 9.116 9.7706 partly covered Waves 2021 total primary energy 2022 603.87 to 616.721 623.567 partly covered Waves 2021 total primary energy 2023 609.983 to 628.15 634.7344 partly covered Waves 2021 total primary energy 2024 615.866 to 641.717 647.9218 partly covered Waves 2021 total primary energy 2025 no observed value 2023 net energy-related CO2 emissions 2024 34.79 to 35.208 36.4591 partly covered Archipelagos 2023 net energy-related CO2 emissions 2025 34.599 to 35.553 35.8062 partly covered Archipelagos 2023 stock of electric passenger vehicles (BEV and PHEV) 2024 51.902 to 59.403 56 covered Sky 2050 2023 stock of electric passenger vehicles (BEV and PHEV) 2025 66.604 to 80.885 75 covered Sky 2050 2023 total primary energy: Coal 2024 160.876 to 160.955 171.7203 partly covered Sky 2050 2023 total primary energy: Coal 2025 159.322 to 162.567 166.0302 partly covered Archipelagos 2023 total primary energy: Natural gas 2024 136.365 to 139.932 145.3235 partly covered Archipelagos 2023 total primary energy: Natural gas 2025 136.456 to 140.97 150.6973 partly covered Archipelagos 2023 total primary energy: Nuclear 2024 30.384 to 30.635 30.5849 covered Sky 2050 2023 total primary energy: Nuclear 2025 30.705 to 31 31.0406 partly covered Sky 2050 2023 total primary energy: Oil 2024 191.318 to 193.298 193.2651 covered Archipelagos 2023 total primary energy: Oil 2025 192.292 to 195.917 200.973 partly covered Archipelagos 2023 total primary energy: Solar - photovoltaic 2024 5.616 to 5.957 7.801 not covered Sky 2050 2023 total primary energy: Solar - photovoltaic 2025 6.723 to 7.751 10.1198 not covered Sky 2050 2023 total primary energy: Wind 2024 9.197 to 9.695 9.4195 covered Archipelagos 2023 total primary energy: Wind 2025 10.323 to 11.915 9.7706 partly covered Archipelagos 2023 total primary energy 2024 616.61 to 620.654 647.9218 partly covered Archipelagos 2023 total primary energy 2025 no observed value --- Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml). ---