# Emission scenarios and pathways · Hindsight | Envisioning Source: https://www.envisioning.com/hindsight/ipcc/emission-pathways --- --- 1. [Hindsight](/hindsight) 2. ›[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change](/hindsight/ipcc) 3. ›Emission scenarios and pathways --- # Emission scenarios and pathways Scenario sets · 5 publications Graded by rule: observed values against the scenario ranges ([D34](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d34-scenario-sets-coverage-issues-32-to-34)). --- [Publishers](/hindsight)[Forecast vs actual](/hindsight/forecasts)[Side by side](/hindsight/comparisons) --- - [2021](/hindsight/ipcc/emission-pathways/2021) Published 2021-08 Predictions 40 Status complete - [2013](/hindsight/ipcc/emission-pathways/2013) Published 2013-09 Predictions 64 Status complete - [2000](/hindsight/ipcc/emission-pathways/2000) Published 2000-03 Predictions 78 Status complete - [1992](/hindsight/ipcc/emission-pathways/1992) Published 1992 Predictions 19 Status partial - [1990](/hindsight/ipcc/emission-pathways/1990) Published 1990 Predictions 4 Status partial Publication Published Predictions Graded Hit rate Status [2021](/hindsight/ipcc/emission-pathways/2021) 2021-08 40 complete [2013](/hindsight/ipcc/emission-pathways/2013) 2013-09 64 complete [2000](/hindsight/ipcc/emission-pathways/2000) 2000-03 78 complete [1992](/hindsight/ipcc/emission-pathways/1992) 1992 19 partial [1990](/hindsight/ipcc/emission-pathways/1990) 1990 4 partial ## Did reality fall inside the scenarios? Rule [D34](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md#d34-scenario-sets-coverage-issues-32-to-34). For each scenario set, metric and passed year, the observed value is compared with the range of the set’s scenarios: inside (covered), within 10% of the nearest edge (partly covered) or outside. Scenarios are never graded as hits or misses. - 2000 Covered 4 Partly covered 0 Not covered 0 - 2013 Covered 5 Partly covered 0 Not covered 0 - 2021 Covered 0 Partly covered 1 Not covered 0 Edition Covered Partly covered Not covered 2000 4 0 0 2013 5 0 0 2021 0 1 0 - covered - partly covered - not covered Every comparison Each line: the scenario range in blue, the 10% either side that counts as partly covered hatched, the observed value as a dot. - 1992 Metric CO2 concentration, as reported in the SAR Year 2000 Result no observed value - 1992 Metric CO2 concentration, as reported in the SAR Year 2010 Result no observed value - 1992 Metric CO2 concentration, as reported in the SAR Year 2020 Result no observed value - 1992 Metric CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes Year 2010 Result no observed value - 1992 Metric CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes Year 2020 Result no observed value - 1992 Metric CO2 emissions, total (energy, deforestation, cement) Year 2000 Result no observed value - 1992 Metric CO2 emissions, total (energy, deforestation, cement) Year 2025 Result no observed value - 2000 Metric CH4 total Year 2010 Result no observed value - 2000 Metric CH4 total Year 2020 Result no observed value - 2000 Metric CO2 abundance, ISAM model (reference) Year 2010 Result no observed value - 2000 Metric CO2 abundance, ISAM model (reference) Year 2020 Result no observed value - 2000 Metric Fossil Fuel CO2 Year 2010 Scenario range 7.99 to 9.68 Observed 9.0933 Result covered Closest scenario A1FI - 2000 Metric Fossil Fuel CO2 Year 2020 Scenario range 9.02 to 12.12 Observed 9.5956 Result covered Closest scenario A1T - 2000 Metric Total CO2 (fossil fuel and other) Year 2010 Scenario range 8.78 to 10.88 Observed 10.8721 Result covered Closest scenario A1B - 2000 Metric Total CO2 (fossil fuel and other) Year 2020 Scenario range 9.05 to 12.73 Observed 10.8283 Result covered Closest scenario B1 - 2013 Metric CH4 emissions Year 2015 Result no observed value - 2013 Metric CH4 emissions Year 2020 Result no observed value - 2013 Metric CH4 emissions Year 2025 Result no observed value - 2013 Metric CO2 concentration, annual global mean Year 2015 Scenario range 399.39 to 401.63 Observed 399.65 Result covered Closest scenario RCP6.0 - 2013 Metric CO2 concentration, annual global mean Year 2020 Scenario range 409.36 to 415.78 Observed 412.44 Result covered Closest scenario RCP2.6 - 2013 Metric CO2 concentration, annual global mean Year 2025 Scenario range 419.04 to 431.47 Observed 425.62 Result covered Closest scenario RCP4.5 - 2013 Metric Fossil & Industrial CO2 (fossil, cement, gas flaring and bunker fuels) Year 2015 Scenario range 8.731 to 10.2316 Observed 9.6625 Result covered Closest scenario RCP4.5 - 2013 Metric Fossil & Industrial CO2 (fossil, cement, gas flaring and bunker fuels) Year 2020 Scenario range 8.9504 to 11.5375 Observed 9.5956 Result covered Closest scenario RCP4.5 - 2013 Metric Fossil & Industrial CO2 (fossil, cement, gas flaring and bunker fuels) Year 2025 Result no observed value - 2021 Metric CO2 concentration, annual global mean Year 2025 Scenario range 426.52 to 432.35 Observed 425.62 Result partly covered Closest scenario SSP1-1.9 Edition Metric Year Scenario range Observed Result Closest scenario 1992 CO2 concentration, as reported in the SAR 2000 no observed value 1992 CO2 concentration, as reported in the SAR 2010 no observed value 1992 CO2 concentration, as reported in the SAR 2020 no observed value 1992 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes 2010 no observed value 1992 CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes 2020 no observed value 1992 CO2 emissions, total (energy, deforestation, cement) 2000 no observed value 1992 CO2 emissions, total (energy, deforestation, cement) 2025 no observed value 2000 CH4 total 2010 no observed value 2000 CH4 total 2020 no observed value 2000 CO2 abundance, ISAM model (reference) 2010 no observed value 2000 CO2 abundance, ISAM model (reference) 2020 no observed value 2000 Fossil Fuel CO2 2010 7.99 to 9.68 9.0933 covered A1FI 2000 Fossil Fuel CO2 2020 9.02 to 12.12 9.5956 covered A1T 2000 Total CO2 (fossil fuel and other) 2010 8.78 to 10.88 10.8721 covered A1B 2000 Total CO2 (fossil fuel and other) 2020 9.05 to 12.73 10.8283 covered B1 2013 CH4 emissions 2015 no observed value 2013 CH4 emissions 2020 no observed value 2013 CH4 emissions 2025 no observed value 2013 CO2 concentration, annual global mean 2015 399.39 to 401.63 399.65 covered RCP6.0 2013 CO2 concentration, annual global mean 2020 409.36 to 415.78 412.44 covered RCP2.6 2013 CO2 concentration, annual global mean 2025 419.04 to 431.47 425.62 covered RCP4.5 2013 Fossil & Industrial CO2 (fossil, cement, gas flaring and bunker fuels) 2015 8.731 to 10.2316 9.6625 covered RCP4.5 2013 Fossil & Industrial CO2 (fossil, cement, gas flaring and bunker fuels) 2020 8.9504 to 11.5375 9.5956 covered RCP4.5 2013 Fossil & Industrial CO2 (fossil, cement, gas flaring and bunker fuels) 2025 no observed value 2021 CO2 concentration, annual global mean 2025 426.52 to 432.35 425.62 partly covered SSP1-1.9 --- Data, code and grading rules are public at [github.com/envisioning/hindsight](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight). Data under CC BY 4.0 (the BCB Focus survey under ODbL), code under MIT. Every rule is in [the decision log](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/blob/main/docs/DECISIONS.md). Think a verdict is wrong? [Open a dispute](https://github.com/envisioning/hindsight/issues/new?template=dispute-verdict.yml). ---